Iran’s Nuclear Program: War Ready in Two Years; Timing for action depends on Israel

By: Steve Yuhas

The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) is one step closer to referring Iran to the United Nations Security Council for Iran’s continual refusal to end her contention that it is not only entitled to, but allowed by G-d to enrich uranium.  Experts disagree on the time it will take for Iran to have a nuclear weapon, but many agree that the time has shortened to two years upwards to ten.  It used to be that Britain, France and Germany (along with the United States in the background) were setting the timetable for the end of Iran’s nuclear program, but the wild card is none of the four.  Israel will make the final call on when and how the end of Iran’s program will happen.

Israel took action when the rest of the world would not when Saddam Hussein was on the verge of attaining a nuclear program; indeed the entire world went apoplectic when Israel acted.  The same holds true if Iran, the sworn enemy of Israel and a country that says Israel does not have the right to exist, comes close to getting a bomb and the world should be looking at the signs. 

In July 2003 an innocuous article appeared in Nucleonics Week that confirmed that high level Israeli diplomats privately informed western governments that if Iran began the process of enriching uranium at the Natanz facility that Israel would unleash her military to destroy it.  Iran has made clear to the world that she intends on doing exactly that if the three European nations and those that support Iran’s referral to the Security Council for working on a bomb refer the Islamic Republic for sanctions.

Some say that the political will to launch another war in the Middle East is not present in the United States today, even though polling data suggests that 2/3rds of the people of the USA do not want Iran to develop a nuclear weapon.  That may or may not be true, but Americans have not forgotten the hostage crisis of the 1970s and certainly know that Iran is a danger to America (even Democrats have put themselves into a position of going to war in Iran, or indeed North Korea, because they consistently stated during the 2000 campaign that Iran was more dangerous than Iraq when the war against Saddam Hussein was launched in 2003). 

The will is different in Israel where her very survival is at stake.  Israelis will not allow Iran to develop a nuclear weapon and the government there believes that Iran will have a nuclear weapon by late 2006 at her current rate.

Israel took unilateral action in 1981 when she made a preemptive strike against a nuclear reactor at Osirak, Iraq that was being used to produce plutonium for a nuclear bomb.  It turns out that Israel was right as she was proven correct during the Gulf War in 1991 and again during the most recent action in Iraq by coalition forces who came upon records and scientists who agree that Iraq was only years away from a nuclear device when Israel stopped it.

After the IAEA came closer to referring Iran to the UN Security Council, Iran struck back by threatening to take action against those nations that voted to send Iran to the Security Council for possible sanctions.  The new President of Iran said that the world cannot stop the progress of science in that nation and the foreign minister said that India could pay a high price for voting with the group who decided to refer Iran to the UN for possible action.

Most interesting is that during the referral vote both Russia and China abstained from voting against the action of sending Iran to the UN – some say that either would use their veto power against sanctions should the issue reach the Security Council, but the fact is that the world has seen through act and deed that neither Israel or the United States will allow the United Nations to dictate foreign policy.  It is for this reason that Iran cannot feel secure that Russia or China may vote no in the Security Council because if Israel feels threatened by Iran’s activities she will act as she did in 1981 and the United States has proven under both Presidents Clinton and Bush that the UN is not the end all when it comes to foreign policy.

There is no doubt that Iran wants a nuclear weapon and there is no doubt that Iran has ties to terrorists as they have consistently allowed members of al Qaeda as well as like minded organizations operate inside their country.  Further, they support terror against the west in the form of terrorism funding and financing and the idea that Iran will develop nuclear technology and pass it to terrorists is probably more likely than Iraq would have done the same. 

The action against Iraq is equally important and valid since chemical and biological weapons could have been passed to terrorists, but Iran has made clear her hatred for Israel and the United States and neither nation can afford to allow Iran to obtain a weapon.

What happens next is anybody’s guess: either the IAEA will refer Iran to the Security Council and action will be taken by the world against allowing Iran develop a nuclear weapon, but the timeline for action is really in the hands of Israel; a nation whose existence is challenged by the nation of Iran.  The United States may act in concert with others if Iran continues on the path to obtaining a nuclear weapon, but the fact is that the United States may not have the will to act given the circumstances in Iraq, but Israel has no such trepidation.

The world should watch and listen as Israel begins to fall silent about Iran’s nuclear program.  Prior to the strike against Iraq in 1981 Israel became eerily silent about her warnings and condemnations over the program taking place in Iraq and before anyone knew what was happening – Israel took out the potential for her neighbor to go nuclear.  The same thing is happening today: Israel is quite silent about Iran’s program and agents in government are not speaking publicly about it; outside of the occasional request that the IAEA and the world make sure that Israel’s existence not be threatened by a sworn enemy possessing a weapon that could take out the New Jersey size nation.

Think back to the events of 1981 and the condemnation that Israel received, by even the United States, after she took out the nuclear program of Saddam Hussein.  What a different world we would be living in today if Iraq had been permitted to go nuclear.  Thankfully, Israel had the courage to defy the world and look out for her interests and set Iraq’s nuclear program back to twenty years.  The same thing may very well be in the works for Iran as Israel is silent on the issue after years of begging the world to act.

Few nations in the world want Iran to be a nuclear nation, but one thing is certain – there are few nations willing to do anything about it.  Iran should be put on notice that Israel is not a nation that will allow it to go forward with a nuclear program and the United States, when and if Israel acts, should not do as it did in 1981 and join the world with pompous and pious statements of condemnation.

The world should send a thank you card to Israel if she acts for if she does not there should be genuine fear that nobody else, including the United States, will.  The time for diplomacy has run out, nothing new is coming out of the European Three or the IAEA and the next step must be taken – what the next step is depends on how the IAEA acts and if it does not do the right thing there may very well be fighters from Israel in the skies of Iran in the not too distant future.

Steve Yuhas is a columnist and radio talk show host on KOGO AM 600 based in San Diego.  He may be reached at steve@steveyuhas.com or www.steveyuhas.com